A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
