Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
